3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Quentin Poling (age 23.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #172 (range #147-#197, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Martin Ifedi, Cory James (Starter), Obum Gwacham (Contributor). Ceiling is David Onyemata (Starter); floor is Martin Ifedi. Drafted #227 by MIA in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 612 spots ahead of the room (board #172 vs consensus #784) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Jermaine Carter Jr. (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #188 (range #173-#203, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ronald Blair (Starter), Ryan Russell (Franchise), David Onyemata (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Ronald Blair (Starter). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 796 spots ahead of the room (board #188 vs consensus #984), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Adams (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #88-#184, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Elandon Roberts (Starter), Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Nate Orchard (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 661 spots ahead of the room (board #136 vs consensus #797), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.