2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 11-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 7 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Durham Smythe (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #211-#291, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nick Vannett (Starter), Thomas Duarte (Bust), Rico Gathers. Ceiling is Jeff Heuerman (Starter); floor is Rico Gathers. 40-yard dash of 4.81s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #138 and the model won't take him before #251 — a 114-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.81s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Thomas (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #240 (range #233-#247, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #240 vs consensus #316), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.