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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
KB
Kalen Ballage
RB · Arizona St.
22.3 yo · — · —
MW
Mark Walton
RB · Miami (FL)
21.1 yo · 5'10" · 202 lb
JK
John Kelly
RB · Tennessee
21.6 yo · 5'10" · 216 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kalen Ballage
Predicted pick
#68
range #12–#189
Bust probability
29%
Consensus rank
#130
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Mark Walton
Predicted pick
#155
range #42–#239
Bust probability
78%
Consensus rank
#99
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
John Kelly
Predicted pick
#105
range #31–#203
Bust probability
81%
Consensus rank
#90
on 6 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$1Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kalen Ballage· RB / WR / TE
  • Mark Walton· RB / WR / TE
  • John Kelly· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKalen Ballage47
  • AthleticismKalen Ballage47
  • AgeJohn Kelly81
  • ConsensusJohn Kelly25
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kalen Ballage50
  • Breakout ageKalen Ballage50
  • WorkloadKalen Ballage100
  • RAS × productionKalen Ballage0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kalen Ballage
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Mark Walton
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
John Kelly
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kalen Ballage
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mark Walton
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
John Kelly
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kalen BallageMark WaltonJohn Kelly· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kalen Ballage

−0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 charting gap run block grade; +0.02 charting short yards per route run

Mark Walton

−0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.02 production trajectory; +0.02 HS recruit rating

John Kelly

−0.03 production trajectory; −0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.02 HS recruit rating