3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John Franklin-Myers (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #164-#170, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 17% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 133 spots ahead of the room (board #167 vs consensus #300), and at a 17% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects James Looney (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #157 (range #129-#185, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jihad Ward (Starter), Ronald Blair (Starter), Yannick Ngakoue (Starter). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Matt Judon (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #133 — don't pay sticker price. The 24-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Zach Sieler (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #162-#204, wide band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 65 spots ahead of the room (board #183 vs consensus #248), and at a 22% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.