3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John Kelly (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #88-#122, wide band). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Howard (Starter), Kelvin Taylor, David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Paul Perkins (Starter); floor is Kelvin Taylor. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #85 — don't pay sticker price. A 63% bust probability backs the 20-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Mark Walton (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #148-#162, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Howard (Starter), Paul Perkins (Starter), David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Paul Perkins (Starter); floor is Alex Collins (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #79 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 76-spot markdown. A 57% bust probability backs the 76-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Kalen Ballage (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #68 (range #43-#93, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Jordan Howard (Starter), David Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is David Johnson (Franchise); floor is Wendell Smallwood (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #68 against a consensus #92 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.