3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
+0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age; −0.02 boards with him top-100
Draftanomics projects Jullian Taylor (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #192-#240, wide band). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Onyemata (Starter), Rodney Gunter (Starter), Darius Kilgo (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 528 spots ahead of the room (board #216 vs consensus #744) — but size the bet for the 55% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects B.J. Hill (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #81 (range #68-#94, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Javon Hargrave (Starter), Quinton Jefferson (Starter), Rodney Gunter (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Quinton Jefferson (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #81 sits within 2 spots of the room's #83 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.