3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Arden Key (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #56-#84, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Carl Nassib (Starter), Shaq Lawson (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #70 sits within 10 spots of the room's #60 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Andrew Brown (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #235 (range #186-#284, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Noah Spence (Starter), DeForest Buckner (Starter), Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Drafted #158 by CIN in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #235 — a 154-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Chad Thomas (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #224 (range #175-#273, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Noah Spence (Starter), DeForest Buckner (Starter), Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #104 and the model won't take him before #224 — a 120-spot markdown. A 55% bust probability backs the 120-spot markdown.