3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Alexander Mattison (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #185 (range #143-#227, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Kareem Hunt. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #116 and the model won't take him before #185 — a 69-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ryquell Armstead (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #140-#224, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Kareem Hunt. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #158 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Benny Snell Jr. (age 21.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #179-#209, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is David Cobb (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 51 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #245), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.