2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: $28M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 37-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Maxx Crosby (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #76 (range #63-#89, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Dawuane Smoot (Bust), Preston Smith (Franchise). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Tarell Basham (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #76 sits within 6 spots of the room's #82 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Nelson (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #100-#126, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter), Leonard Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #86 — don't pay sticker price. The 27-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.