2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 142-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Iman Marshall (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #87-#125, wide band). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Quandre Diggs (Franchise), Blake Countess (Contributor), Doran Grant (Bust). Ceiling is Quandre Diggs (Franchise); floor is Blake Countess (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Doran Grant, Damian Swann. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 93 spots ahead of the room (board #106 vs consensus #199), and at a 28% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Kendall Sheffield (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #211-#285, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 29% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cyrus Jones (Bust), Jourdan Lewis (Bust), Kevon Seymour (Starter). Ceiling is Kevon Seymour (Starter); floor is Damian Swann (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cyrus Jones, Jourdan Lewis, Damian Swann (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #92 and the model won't take him before #248 — a 156-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.