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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
KS
Kaden Smith
TE · Stanford
22.0 yo · 6'5" · 255 lb
CW
Caleb Wilson
TE · UCLA
22.8 yo · 6'4" · 240 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Kaden Smith over Caleb Wilson.

Decisive factor: 104-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 57 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kaden Smith
Predicted pick
#147
range #121–#173
Bust probability
8%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#128
on 5 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Caleb Wilson
Predicted pick
#251
range #219–#283
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kaden Smith· RB / WR / TE
  • Caleb Wilson· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKaden Smith32
  • AthleticismCaleb Wilson29
  • AgeKaden Smith90
  • ConsensusKaden Smith23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kaden Smith50
  • Breakout ageKaden Smith50
  • WorkloadKaden Smith100
  • RAS × productionKaden Smith0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Tyler KroftTE · Starter→ shared byKaden SmithCaleb Wilson
  • Maxx WilliamsTE · Starter→ shared byKaden SmithCaleb Wilson
Kaden Smith
  • Jeremy Sprinkle
    TE · #154
    Bust
  • Jordan Leggett
    TE · #150
    TBD
  • Tyler Kroftshared
    TE · #85
    Starter
  • Maxx Williamsshared
    TE · #55
    Starter
  • Austin Hooper
    TE · #81
    Starter
Caleb Wilson
  • MyCole Pruitt
    TE · #143
    Starter
  • Maxx Williamsshared
    TE · #55
    Starter
  • Tyler Kroftshared
    TE · #85
    Starter
  • Temarrick Hemingway
    TE · #177
    Bust
  • Eric Saubert
    TE · #174
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kaden Smith
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.92s)
    40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #100; model has him #147 — a 47-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Tyler Kroft, Maxx Williams, Austin Hooper. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Caleb Wilson
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #254 by ARI in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Temarrick Hemingway, Eric Saubert. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #182; model has him #251 — a 69-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: MyCole Pruitt, Maxx Williams, Tyler Kroft.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kaden SmithCaleb Wilson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kaden Smith

Draftanomics projects Kaden Smith (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #121-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust), Jordan Leggett, Tyler Kroft (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #100 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.92s) leads the case against.

Caleb Wilson

Draftanomics projects Caleb Wilson (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #219-#283, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: MyCole Pruitt (Starter), Maxx Williams (Starter), Tyler Kroft (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is MyCole Pruitt (Starter). Drafted #254 by ARI in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #182 and the model won't take him before #251 — a 69-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.