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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
KH
Ka'dar Hollman
CB · Toledo
24.6 yo · — · —
TH
Tim Harris
CB · Virginia
23.7 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Ka'dar Hollman over Tim Harris.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 13 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ka'dar Hollman
Predicted pick
#244
range #216–#272
Bust probability· rough estimate
53%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Tim Harris
Predicted pick
#230
range #212–#248
Bust probability· rough estimate
66%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#115
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ka'dar Hollman· CB / S
  • Tim Harris· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTim Harris81
  • AthleticismKa'dar Hollman37
  • AgeTim Harris35
  • ConsensusTim Harris34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ka'dar Hollman50
  • Breakout ageKa'dar Hollman50
  • WorkloadKa'dar Hollman100
  • RAS × productionKa'dar Hollman26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Joshua HolseyCB · Bust→ shared byKa'dar HollmanTim Harris
  • Brian AllenCB · Bust→ shared byKa'dar HollmanTim Harris
Ka'dar Hollman
  • Taurean Nixon
    CB · #251
    Bust
  • Darryl Roberts
    CB · #247
    Starter
  • Damontae Kazee
    CB · #149
    Bust
  • Joshua Holseyshared
    CB · #235
    Bust
  • Brian Allenshared
    CB · #173
    Bust
Tim Harris
  • Adrian Colbert
    CB · #229
    Bust
  • Joshua Holseyshared
    CB · #235
    Bust
  • Brian Allenshared
    CB · #173
    Bust
  • Dexter McDonald
    CB · #242
    Contributor
  • Prince Charles Iworah
    CB · #249
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ka'dar Hollman
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Taurean Nixon, Damontae Kazee, Joshua Holsey (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tim Harris
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #198 by SFO in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #85; model has him #230 — a 145-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Ka'dar HollmanTim Harris· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ka'dar Hollman

Draftanomics projects Ka'dar Hollman (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #244 (range #216-#272, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taurean Nixon (Bust), Darryl Roberts (Starter), Damontae Kazee (Bust). Ceiling is Darryl Roberts (Starter); floor is Taurean Nixon (Bust). Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #244 stands alone — and with bust risk at 53%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Tim Harris

Draftanomics projects Tim Harris (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #212-#248, wide band). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Adrian Colbert (Bust), Joshua Holsey (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Dexter McDonald (Contributor); floor is Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). Drafted #198 by SFO in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #230 — a 145-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.