Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
DW
Dexter Williams
RB · Notre Dame
22.3 yo · 5'11" · 212 lb
MW
Mike Weber
RB · Ohio St.
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 211 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Dexter Williams over Mike Weber.

Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by a bust risk 20 points lower and 32-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Dexter Williams
Predicted pick
#158
range #137–#179
Bust probability
57%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#87
on 1 board
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$1Mmodel
Mike Weber
Predicted pick
#190
range #167–#213
Bust probability
77%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#159
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Dexter Williams· RB / WR / TE
  • Mike Weber· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDexter Williams32
  • AthleticismDexter Williams29
  • AgeMike Weber88
  • ConsensusDexter Williams23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Dexter Williams50
  • Breakout ageDexter Williams50
  • WorkloadDexter Williams100
  • RAS × productionDexter Williams92

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Kenyan DrakeRB · Contributor→ shared byDexter WilliamsMike Weber
  • Alvin KamaraRB · Bust→ shared byDexter WilliamsMike Weber
  • Mike DavisRB · Starter→ shared byDexter WilliamsMike Weber
Dexter Williams
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
  • C.J. Prosise
    RB · #90
    Starter
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
  • Paul Perkins
    RB · #149
    Starter
Mike Weber
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
  • Karlos Williams
    RB · #155
    Bust
  • Wayne Gallman
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Dexter Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: C.J. Prosise, Mike Davis, Paul Perkins. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Mike Weber
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #218 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman, Alvin Kamara. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #144; model has him #190 — a 46-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Dexter WilliamsMike Weber· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Dexter Williams

Draftanomics projects Dexter Williams (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #137-#179, wide band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Alvin Kamara (Bust), C.J. Prosise (Starter). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #144 — don't pay sticker price. A 57% bust probability backs the 14-spot markdown.

Mike Weber

Draftanomics projects Mike Weber (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #167-#213, wide band). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Mike Davis (Starter), Karlos Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Mike Davis (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). Drafted #218 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #144 and the model won't take him before #190 — a 46-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.