3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tim Harris (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #212-#248, wide band). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Adrian Colbert (Bust), Joshua Holsey (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Dexter McDonald (Contributor); floor is Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). Drafted #198 by SFO in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #230 — a 145-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jaquan Johnson (age 23.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #71 (range #19-#123, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Joshua Holsey (Bust), Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). Ceiling is Will Redmond; floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joshua Holsey, Prince Charles Iworah, Cordrea Tankersley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #71 sits within 8 spots of the room's #79 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 13% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ka'dar Hollman (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #244 (range #216-#272, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 53% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taurean Nixon (Bust), Darryl Roberts (Starter), Damontae Kazee (Bust). Ceiling is Darryl Roberts (Starter); floor is Taurean Nixon (Bust). Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #244 stands alone — and with bust risk at 53%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.