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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
GG
Gerri Green
EDGE · Mississippi St.
23.6 yo · — · —
JC
John Cominsky
EDGE · Charleston (WV)
23.4 yo · — · —
LC
L.J. Collier
EDGE · TCU
23.6 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Gerri Green
Predicted pick
#238
range #221–#255
Bust probability
78%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
John Cominsky
Predicted pick
#130
range #113–#147
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#91
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
L.J. Collier
Predicted pick
#101
range #68–#134
Bust probability
23%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#98
on 22 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Gerri Green· EDGE / DL / LB
  • John Cominsky· EDGE / DL / LB
  • L.J. Collier· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionL.J. Collier61
  • AthleticismGerri Green41
  • AgeL.J. Collier41
  • ConsensusJohn Cominsky21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Gerri Green50
  • Breakout ageGerri Green50
  • WorkloadGerri Green100
  • RAS × productionGerri Green0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Gerri Green
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
John Cominsky
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
L.J. Collier
  • Matt Judon
    EDGE · #146
    Starter
  • Derek Rivers
    EDGE · #83
    TBD
  • Jeremiah Ledbetter
    EDGE · #205
    Bust
  • Carl Nassib
    EDGE · #65
    Starter
  • Ronald Blair
    EDGE · #142
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Gerri Green
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #199 by IND in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
John Cominsky
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
L.J. Collier
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Matt Judon, Carl Nassib, Ronald Blair. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Gerri GreenJohn CominskyL.J. Collier· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Gerri Green

Draftanomics projects Gerri Green (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #238 (range #221-#255, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. Drafted #199 by IND in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 98 spots ahead of the room (board #238 vs consensus #336) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

John Cominsky

Draftanomics projects John Cominsky (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #130 (range #113-#147, wide band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #130 sits within 2 spots of the room's #132 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 22% bust probability break ties on draft day.

L.J. Collier

Draftanomics projects L.J. Collier (age 23.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #68-#134, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matt Judon (Starter), Derek Rivers, Jeremiah Ledbetter (Bust). Ceiling is Carl Nassib (Starter); floor is Derek Rivers. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #76 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.