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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
DJ
Donnie Lewis Jr.
CB · Tulane
22.8 yo · — · —
AO
Amani Oruwariye
CB · Penn St.
23.2 yo · 6'2" · 205 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Amani Oruwariye over Donnie Lewis Jr..

Decisive factor: 84-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 65 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Donnie Lewis Jr.
Predicted pick
#179
range #149–#209
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Amani Oruwariye
Predicted pick
#95
range #66–#124
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#56
on 24 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Donnie Lewis Jr.· CB / S
  • Amani Oruwariye· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDonnie Lewis Jr.36
  • AthleticismAmani Oruwariye37
  • AgeDonnie Lewis Jr.70
  • ConsensusAmani Oruwariye34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Donnie Lewis Jr.50
  • Breakout ageDonnie Lewis Jr.50
  • WorkloadDonnie Lewis Jr.100
  • RAS × productionDonnie Lewis Jr.26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Rasul DouglasCB · Bust→ shared byDonnie Lewis Jr.Amani Oruwariye
Donnie Lewis Jr.
  • Anthony Brown
    CB · #189
    Starter
  • Shaquill Griffin
    CB · #90
    Bust
  • Corn Elder
    CB · #152
    TBD
  • Ahkello Witherspoon
    CB · #66
    Bust
  • Rasul Douglasshared
    CB · #99
    Bust
Amani Oruwariye
  • Cordrea Tankersley
    CB · #97
    Bust
  • Rasul Douglasshared
    CB · #99
    Bust
  • Adoree' Jackson
    CB · #18
    Bust
  • Zack Sanchez
    CB · #141
    Bust
  • Sidney Jones
    CB · #43
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Donnie Lewis Jr.
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #221 by CLE in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #366; model has him #179 — a 187-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Amani Oruwariye
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cordrea Tankersley, Rasul Douglas, Adoree' Jackson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    25 boards have him at mean rank #60; model has him #95 — a 35-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Donnie Lewis Jr.Amani Oruwariye· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Donnie Lewis Jr.

Draftanomics projects Donnie Lewis Jr. (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #149-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Brown (Starter), Shaquill Griffin (Bust), Corn Elder. Ceiling is Anthony Brown (Starter); floor is Corn Elder. Drafted #221 by CLE in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 187 spots ahead of the room (board #179 vs consensus #366) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Amani Oruwariye

Draftanomics projects Amani Oruwariye (age 23.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #66-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cordrea Tankersley (Bust), Rasul Douglas (Bust), Adoree' Jackson (Bust). Ceiling is Adoree' Jackson (Bust); floor is Zack Sanchez (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cordrea Tankersley, Rasul Douglas, Adoree' Jackson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #60 and the model won't take him before #95 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.