3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jackson Barton as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #90-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Tyrus Thompson, Rob Havenstein. Ceiling is Rob Havenstein; floor is Sam Tevi. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 111 spots ahead of the room (board #122 vs consensus #233), and at a 15% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects George Asafo-Adjei as a Day 3 dart throw at #193 (range #179-#207, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #193 stands alone — and with bust risk at 78%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Javon Patterson as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #162-#190, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #246 by IND in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 62 spots ahead of the room (board #176 vs consensus #238) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.