2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 35 points lower. Reinforced by $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ben Burr-Kirven (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #35-#115, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Raekwon McMillan, Blake Martinez (Starter), Jarrad Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jarrad Davis, Duke Riley, Jordan Evans. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #75 sits within 5 spots of the room's #80 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 35% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Cody Barton (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #68-#130, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blake Martinez (Starter), Raekwon McMillan, Jayon Brown (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jayon Brown, Anthony Walker, Jordan Evans. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #99 sits within 8 spots of the room's #91 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.