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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DJ
Diontae Johnson
WR · Toledo
22.8 yo · 5'10" · 183 lb
HR
Hunter Renfrow
WR · Clemson
23.3 yo · 5'10" · 184 lb
MG
Marcus Green
WR · La-Monroe
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Diontae Johnson
Predicted pick
#173
range #70–#218
Bust probability
38%
Consensus rank
#162
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$28Mmodel
Hunter Renfrow
Predicted pick
#143
range #63–#251
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
#83
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$20Mmodel
Marcus Green
Predicted pick
#228
range #91–#243
Bust probability
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Diontae Johnson· RB / WR / TE
  • Hunter Renfrow· RB / WR / TE
  • Marcus Green· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionHunter Renfrow96
  • AthleticismDiontae Johnson29
  • AgeMarcus Green63
  • ConsensusDiontae Johnson23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Diontae Johnson50
  • Breakout ageDiontae Johnson50
  • WorkloadDiontae Johnson100
  • RAS × productionDiontae Johnson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Diontae Johnson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Hunter Renfrow
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Marcus Green
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Diontae Johnson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Hunter Renfrow
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marcus Green
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Diontae JohnsonHunter RenfrowMarcus Green· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Diontae Johnson

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.02 charting yards after contact per att

Hunter Renfrow

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.03 college production

Marcus Green

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 charting yards after contact per att