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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DJ
Diontae Johnson
WR · Toledo
22.8 yo · 5'10" · 183 lb
NH
N'Keal Harry
WR · Arizona St.
21.4 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take N'Keal Harry over Diontae Johnson.

Decisive factor: 155-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 29 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Diontae Johnson
Predicted pick
#173
range #134–#212
Bust probability
38%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#162
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$28Mmodel
N'Keal Harry
Predicted pick
#18
range #1–#63
Bust probability
9%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#32
on 25 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Diontae Johnson· RB / WR / TE
  • N'Keal Harry· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDiontae Johnson32
  • AthleticismDiontae Johnson29
  • AgeN'Keal Harry63
  • ConsensusDiontae Johnson23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Diontae Johnson50
  • Breakout ageDiontae Johnson50
  • WorkloadDiontae Johnson100
  • RAS × productionDiontae Johnson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Chad HansenWR · Bust→ shared byDiontae JohnsonN'Keal Harry
  • Mike ThomasWR · Contributor→ shared byDiontae JohnsonN'Keal Harry
  • Daniel BravermanWR · Bust→ shared byDiontae JohnsonN'Keal Harry
Diontae Johnson
  • Chad Hansenshared
    WR · #141
    Bust
  • Jaelen Strong
    WR · #70
    Franchise
  • Mike Thomasshared
    WR · #206
    Contributor
  • Pharoh Cooper
    WR · #117
    Contributor
  • Daniel Bravermanshared
    WR · #230
    Bust
N'Keal Harry
  • Daniel Bravermanshared
    WR · #230
    Bust
  • Isaiah Ford
    WR · #237
    TBD
  • Mike Thomasshared
    WR · #206
    Contributor
  • Chad Hansenshared
    WR · #141
    Bust
  • Tyler Boyd
    WR · #55
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Diontae Johnson
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chad Hansen, Daniel Braverman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #118; model has him #173 — a 55-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
N'Keal Harry
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Daniel Braverman, Chad Hansen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Diontae JohnsonN'Keal Harry· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Diontae Johnson

Draftanomics projects Diontae Johnson (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #173 (range #134-#212, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chad Hansen (Bust), Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chad Hansen, Daniel Braverman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #118 and the model won't take him before #173 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

N'Keal Harry

Draftanomics projects N'Keal Harry (age 21.4 at draft) as a first-round pick at #18 (range #1-#63, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Isaiah Ford, Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Tyler Boyd (Starter); floor is Isaiah Ford. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Daniel Braverman, Chad Hansen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #18 against a consensus #34 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.