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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
SS
Sutton Smith
EDGE · Northern Illinois
23.1 yo · 6'0" · 233 lb
MD
Michael Dogbe
EDGE · Temple
23.0 yo · — · —
AN
Anthony Nelson
EDGE · Iowa
22.1 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Sutton Smith
Predicted pick
#145
range #88–#238
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Michael Dogbe
Predicted pick
#111
range #81–#241
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Anthony Nelson
Predicted pick
#113
range #60–#216
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#114
on 21 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Sutton Smith· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Michael Dogbe· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Anthony Nelson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSutton Smith38
  • AthleticismSutton Smith41
  • AgeAnthony Nelson90
  • ConsensusSutton Smith21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Sutton Smith50
  • Breakout ageSutton Smith50
  • WorkloadSutton Smith100
  • RAS × productionSutton Smith0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Sutton Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Michael Dogbe
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Anthony Nelson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Sutton Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Michael Dogbe
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Anthony Nelson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Sutton SmithMichael DogbeAnthony Nelson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Sutton Smith

−0.05 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 position role purity

Michael Dogbe

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.03 production trajectory

Anthony Nelson

+0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting catch rate allowed avg; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg