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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
SS
Sutton Smith
EDGE · Northern Illinois
23.1 yo · 6'0" · 233 lb
JF
Jaylon Ferguson
EDGE · Louisiana Tech
23.4 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Jaylon Ferguson over Sutton Smith.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Sutton Smith
Predicted pick
#145
range #93–#197
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Jaylon Ferguson
Predicted pick
#183
range #131–#235
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#72
on 25 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Sutton Smith· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jaylon Ferguson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSutton Smith38
  • AthleticismSutton Smith41
  • AgeJaylon Ferguson50
  • ConsensusSutton Smith21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Sutton Smith50
  • Breakout ageSutton Smith50
  • WorkloadSutton Smith100
  • RAS × productionSutton Smith0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Tarell BashamEDGE · Bust→ shared bySutton SmithJaylon Ferguson
  • Ejuan PriceEDGE · Bust→ shared bySutton SmithJaylon Ferguson
  • Takkarist McKinleyEDGE · Bust→ shared bySutton SmithJaylon Ferguson
  • Derek BarnettEDGE · Bust→ shared bySutton SmithJaylon Ferguson
Sutton Smith
  • Tarell Bashamshared
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Ejuan Priceshared
    EDGE · #234
    Bust
  • Takkarist McKinleyshared
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Derek Barnettshared
    EDGE · #14
    Bust
  • Dawuane Smoot
    EDGE · #68
    Bust
Jaylon Ferguson
  • Tarell Bashamshared
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Takkarist McKinleyshared
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Derek Barnettshared
    EDGE · #14
    Bust
  • Ejuan Priceshared
    EDGE · #234
    Bust
  • Derek Rivers
    EDGE · #83
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Sutton Smith
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #175 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #321; model has him #145 — a 176-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jaylon Ferguson
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Takkarist McKinley, Derek Barnett (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    27 boards have him at mean rank #70; model has him #183 — a 113-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Sutton SmithJaylon Ferguson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Sutton Smith

Draftanomics projects Sutton Smith (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #145 (range #93-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Ejuan Price (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust). Ceiling is Derek Barnett (Bust); floor is Ejuan Price (Bust). Drafted #175 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 176 spots ahead of the room (board #145 vs consensus #321) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Jaylon Ferguson

Draftanomics projects Jaylon Ferguson (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #131-#235, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Derek Barnett (Bust). Ceiling is Derek Rivers; floor is Ejuan Price (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Takkarist McKinley, Derek Barnett (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #183 — a 113-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.