3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derwin Gray as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #159-#265, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Le'Raven Clark, Andrew Donnal, Adam Bisnowaty. Ceiling is Donovan Smith; floor is Denzelle Good. Drafted #219 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #212 stands alone — and with bust risk at 16%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Javon Patterson as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #162-#190, wide band). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #246 by IND in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #176 stands alone — and with bust risk at 33%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Hjalte Froholdt as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #106-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Christian Westerman, Isaac Asiata, Ian Silberman. Ceiling is Dorian Johnson; floor is Ian Silberman. Drafted #118 by NWE in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #123 against a consensus #139 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.