3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derwin Gray as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #159-#265, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Le'Raven Clark, Andrew Donnal, Adam Bisnowaty. Ceiling is Donovan Smith; floor is Denzelle Good. Drafted #219 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 55 spots ahead of the room (board #212 vs consensus #267), and at a 16% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Chuma Edoga as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #167-#239, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: John Theus, Shon Coleman, Kyle Murphy. Ceiling is Shon Coleman; floor is Kyle Murphy. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #88 and the model won't take him before #203 — a 115-spot markdown. The 115-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Jackson Barton as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #90-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Tyrus Thompson, Rob Havenstein. Ceiling is Rob Havenstein; floor is Sam Tevi. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 111 spots ahead of the room (board #122 vs consensus #233), and at a 9% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.