3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zach Gentry (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #224-#280, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Leggett, Nick O'Leary (Starter), Austin Hooper (Starter). Ceiling is Austin Hooper (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 40-yard dash of 4.90s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 43 spots ahead of the room (board #252 vs consensus #295), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Dawson Knox (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #77-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Austin Hooper (Starter), Michael Roberts (Bust), Jordan Leggett. Ceiling is Austin Hooper (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Michael Roberts, Thomas Duarte. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #90 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kaden Smith (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #121-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust), Jordan Leggett, Tyler Kroft (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 40-yard dash of 4.92s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #100 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.92s) leads the case against.