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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
LJ
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
CB · Kentucky
23.5 yo · 6'2" · 213 lb
KW
Ken Webster
CB · Mississippi
22.9 yo · 5'11" · 203 lb
TH
Tim Harris
CB · Virginia
23.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Predicted pick
#166
range #53–#250
Bust probability· rough estimate
20%
Consensus rank
#112
on 23 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Ken Webster
Predicted pick
#195
range #112–#246
Bust probability· rough estimate
47%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Tim Harris
Predicted pick
#230
range #74–#229
Bust probability· rough estimate
66%
Consensus rank
#115
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.· CB / S
  • Ken Webster· CB / S
  • Tim Harris· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTim Harris81
  • AthleticismKen Webster67
  • AgeLonnie Johnson Jr.46
  • ConsensusLonnie Johnson Jr.34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Lonnie Johnson Jr.50
  • Breakout ageLonnie Johnson Jr.50
  • WorkloadLonnie Johnson Jr.100
  • RAS × productionLonnie Johnson Jr.26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ken Webster
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tim Harris
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ken Webster
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tim Harris
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Lonnie Johnson Jr.Ken WebsterTim Harris· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Lonnie Johnson Jr.

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg

Ken Webster

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; −0.03 charting catch rate allowed avg

Tim Harris

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; −0.04 HS recruit rating