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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
MS
Max Scharping
OT · Northern Illinois
— · 6'6" · 327 lb
AD
Andre Dillard
OT · Washington St.
— · 6'5" · 315 lb
TH
Tytus Howard
OT · Alabama St.
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Max Scharping
Predicted pick
#41
range #14–#68
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
Consensus rank
#129
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Andre Dillard
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#42
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
Consensus rank
#23
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Tytus Howard
Predicted pick
#61
range #40–#82
Bust probability· rough estimate
4%
Consensus rank
#117
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$23Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Max Scharping· Offensive line
  • Andre Dillard· Offensive line
  • Tytus Howard· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMax Scharping50
  • AthleticismMax Scharping31
  • AgeMax Scharping84
  • ConsensusMax Scharping24
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Max Scharping50
  • Breakout ageMax Scharping50
  • WorkloadMax Scharping50
  • RAS × productionMax Scharping31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Willie BeaversOT · TBD→ shared byMax ScharpingAndre Dillard
  • Antonio GarciaOT · TBD→ shared byMax ScharpingAndre Dillard
Max Scharping
  • Ty Sambrailo
    OT · #59
    TBD
  • Willie Beaversshared
    OT · #121
    TBD
  • Joe Haeg
    OT · #155
    TBD
  • Cole Toner
    OT · #170
    TBD
  • Antonio Garciashared
    OT · #85
    TBD
Andre Dillard
  • Jack Conklin
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Garett Bolles
    OT · #20
    TBD
  • Alex Lewis
    OT · #130
    TBD
  • Antonio Garciashared
    OT · #85
    TBD
  • Willie Beaversshared
    OT · #121
    TBD
Tytus Howard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Max Scharping
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    8 boards place him at mean rank #85; model has him #41 — a 44-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Andre Dillard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tytus Howard
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Max ScharpingAndre DillardTytus Howard· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Max Scharping

Draftanomics projects Max Scharping as a Day 2 pick at #41 (range #14-#68, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Ty Sambrailo, Willie Beavers, Joe Haeg. Ceiling is Ty Sambrailo; floor is Cole Toner. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 44 spots ahead of the room (board #41 vs consensus #85), and at a 3% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Andre Dillard

Draftanomics projects Andre Dillard as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#42, wide band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Garett Bolles, Alex Lewis. Ceiling is Jack Conklin; floor is Alex Lewis. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #24 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Tytus Howard

Draftanomics projects Tytus Howard as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #40-#82, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #61 against a consensus #83 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.