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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
TH
Trysten Hill
DT · Central Florida
21.1 yo · — · —
GG
Greg Gaines
DT · Washington
23.0 yo · — · —
DL
Dexter Lawrence
DT · Clemson
21.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Trysten Hill
Predicted pick
#161
range #48–#245
Bust probability
31%
Consensus rank
#97
on 8 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Greg Gaines
Predicted pick
#69
range #13–#190
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#145
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Dexter Lawrence
Predicted pick
#34
range #12–#71
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#30
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$26Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Trysten Hill· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Greg Gaines· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Dexter Lawrence· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTrysten Hill38
  • AthleticismTrysten Hill41
  • AgeTrysten Hill83
  • ConsensusTrysten Hill21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Trysten Hill50
  • Breakout ageTrysten Hill50
  • WorkloadTrysten Hill100
  • RAS × productionTrysten Hill0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Trysten Hill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Greg Gaines
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dexter Lawrence
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Trysten Hill
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Greg Gaines
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dexter Lawrence
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Trysten HillGreg GainesDexter Lawrence· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Trysten Hill

−0.06 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.02 HS recruit rating; +0.02 age

Greg Gaines

−0.04 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting run def grade career avg

Dexter Lawrence

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 boards with him top-50; +0.02 charting gap run block grade