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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
RW
Renell Wren
DT · Arizona St.
23.5 yo · — · —
DC
Demarcus Christmas
DT · Florida St.
23.8 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Renell Wren over Demarcus Christmas.

Decisive factor: 88-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Renell Wren
Predicted pick
#154
range #51–#199
Bust probability
46%
Consensus rank
#137
on 21 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Demarcus Christmas
Predicted pick
#242
range #105–#257
Bust probability
46%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Renell Wren· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Demarcus Christmas· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionRenell Wren38
  • AthleticismRenell Wren41
  • AgeRenell Wren52
  • ConsensusDemarcus Christmas5
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Renell Wren50
  • Breakout ageRenell Wren50
  • WorkloadRenell Wren100
  • RAS × productionRenell Wren0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Renell Wren
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Demarcus Christmas
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Renell Wren
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Demarcus Christmas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Renell WrenDemarcus Christmas· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Renell Wren

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.06 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; −0.02 age

Demarcus Christmas

−0.07 age; −0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating