3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tony Pollard (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #235 (range #214-#256, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kareem Hunt (Bust), David Cobb (Bust), Keenan Reynolds. Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Keenan Reynolds. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kareem Hunt, David Cobb, Jeremy McNichols. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #181 and the model won't take him before #235 — a 54-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trayveon Williams (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #69-#111, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Samaje Perine (Bust), Jeremy McNichols (Bust), Paul Perkins (Starter). Ceiling is Paul Perkins (Starter); floor is Alex Collins (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Samaje Perine, Jeremy McNichols, Kareem Hunt. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #90 sits within 4 spots of the room's #86 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Benny Snell Jr. (age 21.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #179-#209, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is David Cobb (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 51 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #245), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.