3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jarrett Stidham (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #174 (range #137-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 29% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Cody Kessler (Starter), Brett Hundley (Starter), Joshua Dobbs. Ceiling is Cody Kessler (Starter); floor is Chad Kelly. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #73 and the model won't take him before #174 — a 101-spot markdown. The 101-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Drew Lock (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #44 (range #1-#98, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Joshua Dobbs, Brett Hundley (Starter), Chad Kelly. Ceiling is Cody Kessler (Starter); floor is Chad Kelly. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #44 sits within 3 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 12% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Clayton Thorson (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #218 (range #176-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 44% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Trevor Siemian (Franchise), Jacoby Brissett (Starter), Sean Mannion (Franchise). Ceiling is Sean Mannion (Franchise); floor is Davis Webb. Drafted #167 by PHI in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #117 and the model won't take him before #218 — a 101-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.