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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
SM
Shareef Miller
EDGE · Penn St.
22.1 yo · 6'4" · 254 lb
JJ
Jalen Jelks
EDGE · Oregon
22.7 yo · 6'5" · 256 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Shareef Miller over Jalen Jelks.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 48 points lower. Reinforced by 40-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Shareef Miller
Predicted pick
#132
range #88–#176
Bust probability
17%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#102
on 1 board
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Jalen Jelks
Predicted pick
#172
range #125–#219
Bust probability
65%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Shareef Miller· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jalen Jelks· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionShareef Miller38
  • AthleticismShareef Miller1
  • AgeShareef Miller90
  • ConsensusShareef Miller21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Shareef Miller50
  • Breakout ageShareef Miller50
  • WorkloadShareef Miller100
  • RAS × productionShareef Miller0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Kevin DoddEDGE · Starter→ shared byShareef MillerJalen Jelks
  • B.J. DuboseEDGE · TBD→ shared byShareef MillerJalen Jelks
  • Za'Darius SmithEDGE · Franchise→ shared byShareef MillerJalen Jelks
Shareef Miller
  • Kevin Doddshared
    EDGE · #33
    Starter
  • DeForest Buckner
    EDGE · #7
    Starter
  • B.J. Duboseshared
    EDGE · #193
    TBD
  • Za'Darius Smithshared
    EDGE · #122
    Franchise
  • Carl Nassib
    EDGE · #65
    Starter
Jalen Jelks
  • Kevin Doddshared
    EDGE · #33
    Starter
  • Za'Darius Smithshared
    EDGE · #122
    Franchise
  • B.J. Duboseshared
    EDGE · #193
    TBD
  • Jeremiah Ledbetter
    EDGE · #205
    Bust
  • Jonathan Woodard
    EDGE · #226
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Shareef Miller
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Kevin Dodd, DeForest Buckner, Za'Darius Smith (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Jalen Jelks
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #241 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #113; model has him #172 — a 59-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Kevin Dodd, Za'Darius Smith.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Shareef MillerJalen Jelks· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Shareef Miller

Draftanomics projects Shareef Miller (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #132 (range #88-#176, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 17% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin Dodd (Starter), DeForest Buckner (Starter), B.J. Dubose. Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #104 — don't pay sticker price. The 28-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Jalen Jelks

Draftanomics projects Jalen Jelks (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #172 (range #125-#219, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin Dodd (Starter), Za'Darius Smith (Franchise), B.J. Dubose. Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. Drafted #241 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #113 and the model won't take him before #172 — a 59-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.