2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 71-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Amani Oruwariye (age 23.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #66-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cordrea Tankersley (Bust), Rasul Douglas (Bust), Adoree' Jackson (Bust). Ceiling is Adoree' Jackson (Bust); floor is Zack Sanchez (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cordrea Tankersley, Rasul Douglas, Adoree' Jackson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #60 and the model won't take him before #95 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Lonnie Johnson Jr. (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #125-#207, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Brian Allen (Bust), Prince Charles Iworah (Bust), Adrian Colbert (Bust). Ceiling is Fabian Moreau (Bust); floor is Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brian Allen, Prince Charles Iworah, Adrian Colbert (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #166 — a 84-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.