3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Qadree Ollison (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #182-#264, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), D'Onta Foreman (Bust). Ceiling is Khalfani Muhammad; floor is Matthew Dayes (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, D'Onta Foreman (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #223 stands alone — and with bust risk at 25%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Ryquell Armstead (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #140-#224, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 82% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Kareem Hunt. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #182 stands alone — and with bust risk at 82%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Benny Snell Jr. (age 21.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #179-#209, wide band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is David Cobb (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #194 stands alone — and with bust risk at 22%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.