2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 50-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Michael Jackson (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #120 (range #71-#169, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Artie Burns (Starter), Will Redmond, Harlan Miller (Contributor). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Harlan Miller (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #105 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects David Long (age 21.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #27-#113, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Sidney Jones (Bust), Cameron Sutton (Bust), Quincy Wilson (Bust). Ceiling is Marquez White; floor is Zack Sanchez (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sidney Jones, Cameron Sutton, Quincy Wilson (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #70 sits within 8 spots of the room's #78 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.