3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Charles Omenihu (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #138 (range #114-#162, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Carl Nassib (Starter). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #74 and the model won't take him before #138 — a 64-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Nelson (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #100-#126, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter), Leonard Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #86 — don't pay sticker price. The 27-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Shareef Miller (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #132 (range #88-#176, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 17% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin Dodd (Starter), DeForest Buckner (Starter), B.J. Dubose. Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #104 — don't pay sticker price. The 28-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.