2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 45 points lower. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and 11-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Charles Omenihu (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #138 (range #114-#162, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Carl Nassib (Starter). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #74 and the model won't take him before #138 — a 64-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Joe Jackson (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #124-#174, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jihad Ward (Starter), Tanoh Kpassagnon (Bust), Tarell Basham (Bust). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Dean Lowry (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tanoh Kpassagnon, Tarell Basham, Takkarist McKinley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.