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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
JJ
Joe Jackson
EDGE · Miami (FL)
22.3 yo · — · —
OX
Oshane Ximines
EDGE · Old Dominion
22.4 yo · 6'3" · 253 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Oshane Ximines over Joe Jackson.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 45 points lower. Reinforced by 58-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Joe Jackson
Predicted pick
#149
range #124–#174
Bust probability
45%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#80
on 7 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Oshane Ximines
Predicted pick
#91
range #31–#151
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#125
on 21 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Joe Jackson· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Oshane Ximines· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJoe Jackson38
  • AthleticismOshane Ximines41
  • AgeJoe Jackson87
  • ConsensusJoe Jackson21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Joe Jackson50
  • Breakout ageJoe Jackson50
  • WorkloadJoe Jackson100
  • RAS × productionJoe Jackson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Tarell BashamEDGE · Bust→ shared byJoe JacksonOshane Ximines
  • Takkarist McKinleyEDGE · Bust→ shared byJoe JacksonOshane Ximines
Joe Jackson
  • Jihad Ward
    EDGE · #44
    Starter
  • Tanoh Kpassagnon
    EDGE · #59
    Bust
  • Tarell Bashamshared
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Dean Lowry
    EDGE · #137
    Starter
  • Takkarist McKinleyshared
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
Oshane Ximines
  • Tarell Bashamshared
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Dawuane Smoot
    EDGE · #68
    Bust
  • Takkarist McKinleyshared
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Pat O'Connor
    EDGE · #250
    Bust
  • Jonathan Woodard
    EDGE · #226
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Joe Jackson
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tanoh Kpassagnon, Tarell Basham, Takkarist McKinley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    8 boards have him at mean rank #81; model has him #149 — a 68-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Oshane Ximines
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Joe JacksonOshane Ximines· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Joe Jackson

Draftanomics projects Joe Jackson (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #124-#174, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jihad Ward (Starter), Tanoh Kpassagnon (Bust), Tarell Basham (Bust). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Dean Lowry (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tanoh Kpassagnon, Tarell Basham, Takkarist McKinley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Oshane Ximines

Draftanomics projects Oshane Ximines (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #91 (range #31-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Dawuane Smoot (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust). Ceiling is Jonathan Woodard; floor is Pat O'Connor (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #91 sits within 5 spots of the room's #86 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.