3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Saquan Hampton (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #219 (range #199-#239, wide band). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Treston Decoud (Bust), Michael Tyson, Rayshawn Jenkins (Bust). Ceiling is Michael Tyson; floor is Derron Smith (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Treston Decoud, Rayshawn Jenkins, DeAndre Houston-Carson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #118 and the model won't take him before #219 — a 101-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Marcus Epps (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #159 (range #115-#203, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Rayshawn Jenkins (Bust), Treston Decoud (Bust), Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise). Ceiling is Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise); floor is Clayton Fejedelem (Contributor). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #159 stands alone — and with bust risk at 11%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Donovan Wilson (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #222 (range #182-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Michael Tyson, Marcus Maye (Bust), Treston Decoud (Bust). Ceiling is Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise); floor is Michael Tyson. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marcus Maye, Treston Decoud, Rayshawn Jenkins. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #222 stands alone — and with bust risk at 11%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.