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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
JJ
Jaquan Johnson
CB · Miami (FL)
23.4 yo · — · —
LJ
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
CB · Kentucky
23.5 yo · 6'2" · 213 lb
TH
Tim Harris
CB · Virginia
23.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jaquan Johnson
Predicted pick
#71
range #27–#183
Bust probability· rough estimate
13%
Consensus rank
#75
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Predicted pick
#166
range #53–#250
Bust probability· rough estimate
20%
Consensus rank
#112
on 23 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Tim Harris
Predicted pick
#230
range #74–#229
Bust probability· rough estimate
66%
Consensus rank
#115
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jaquan Johnson· CB / S
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.· CB / S
  • Tim Harris· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTim Harris81
  • AthleticismJaquan Johnson37
  • AgeLonnie Johnson Jr.46
  • ConsensusJaquan Johnson34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jaquan Johnson50
  • Breakout ageJaquan Johnson50
  • WorkloadJaquan Johnson100
  • RAS × productionJaquan Johnson26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jaquan Johnson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tim Harris
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jaquan Johnson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tim Harris
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jaquan JohnsonLonnie Johnson Jr.Tim Harris· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jaquan Johnson

−0.03 age; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting coverage grade career avg

Lonnie Johnson Jr.

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg

Tim Harris

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; −0.04 HS recruit rating