3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects David Long (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #124-#172, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jayon Brown (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust), Elijah Lee (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jayon Brown, Antwione Williams, Elijah Lee (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #148 against a consensus #170 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jahlani Tavai (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #126 (range #105-#147, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blair Brown (Bust), Marquel Lee (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust). Ceiling is Blair Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Blair Brown, Marquel Lee, Matt Milano (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #88 and the model won't take him before #126 — a 38-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Germaine Pratt (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #63-#101, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Trevor Bates (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust). Ceiling is David Mayo (Contributor); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Trevor Bates, Antwione Williams, Matt Milano (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #82 against a consensus #99 is a 17-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.