3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects David Long (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #124-#172, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jayon Brown (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust), Elijah Lee (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jayon Brown, Antwione Williams, Elijah Lee (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #148 against a consensus #170 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Cody Barton (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #68-#130, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blake Martinez (Starter), Raekwon McMillan, Jayon Brown (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jayon Brown, Anthony Walker, Jordan Evans. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #99 sits within 8 spots of the room's #91 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 5% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Blake Cashman (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #45-#85, wide band). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust), Trevor Bates (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Matt Milano, Trevor Bates (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 37 spots ahead of the room (board #65 vs consensus #102), and at a 16% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.