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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
XC
Xavier Crawford
CB · Central Michigan
23.4 yo · 5'11" · 187 lb
BA
Blessuan Austin
CB · Rutgers
22.8 yo · 6'1" · 198 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Blessuan Austin over Xavier Crawford.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 37 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Xavier Crawford
Predicted pick
#205
range #153–#257
Bust probability· rough estimate
48%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Blessuan Austin
Predicted pick
#233
range #204–#262
Bust probability· rough estimate
11%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Xavier Crawford· CB / S
  • Blessuan Austin· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionXavier Crawford36
  • AthleticismXavier Crawford37
  • AgeBlessuan Austin52
  • ConsensusXavier Crawford17
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Xavier Crawford50
  • Breakout ageXavier Crawford50
  • WorkloadXavier Crawford100
  • RAS × productionXavier Crawford26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Quinten RollinsCB · Starter→ shared byXavier CrawfordBlessuan Austin
  • Lorenzo DossCB · Contributor→ shared byXavier CrawfordBlessuan Austin
Xavier Crawford
  • Quinten Rollinsshared
    CB · #62
    Starter
  • Dexter McDonald
    CB · #242
    Contributor
  • Lorenzo Dossshared
    CB · #164
    Contributor
  • Craig Mager
    CB · #83
    Starter
  • Taurean Nixon
    CB · #251
    Bust
Blessuan Austin
  • JaCorey Shepherd
    CB · #191
    Bust
  • Lorenzo Dossshared
    CB · #164
    Contributor
  • Quinten Rollinsshared
    CB · #62
    Starter
  • LeShaun Sims
    CB · #157
    Contributor
  • Jamal Agnew
    CB · #165
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Xavier Crawford
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #282; model has him #205 — a 77-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Quinten Rollins, Craig Mager.
Blessuan Austin
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JaCorey Shepherd, Jamal Agnew. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #183; model has him #233 — a 50-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Xavier CrawfordBlessuan Austin· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Xavier Crawford

Draftanomics projects Xavier Crawford (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #205 (range #153-#257, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Quinten Rollins (Starter), Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Lorenzo Doss (Contributor). Ceiling is Quinten Rollins (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 77 spots ahead of the room (board #205 vs consensus #282) — but size the bet for the 48% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Blessuan Austin

Draftanomics projects Blessuan Austin (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #204-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JaCorey Shepherd (Bust), Lorenzo Doss (Contributor), Quinten Rollins (Starter). Ceiling is Quinten Rollins (Starter); floor is Lorenzo Doss (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JaCorey Shepherd, Jamal Agnew. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #183 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.