2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 169-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 20 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dennis Daley as a Day 3 dart throw at #210 (range #187-#233, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Conor McDermott, Fahn Cooper, Alex Lewis. Ceiling is Willie Beavers; floor is Conor McDermott. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #119 and the model won't take him before #210 — a 91-spot markdown. The 91-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Max Scharping as a Day 2 pick at #41 (range #14-#68, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Ty Sambrailo, Willie Beavers, Joe Haeg. Ceiling is Ty Sambrailo; floor is Cole Toner. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 44 spots ahead of the room (board #41 vs consensus #85), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.