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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
MW
Mike Weber
RB · Ohio St.
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 211 lb
DW
Dexter Williams
RB · Notre Dame
22.3 yo · 5'11" · 212 lb
DH
Damien Harris
RB · Alabama
22.2 yo · 5'10" · 216 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Mike Weber
Predicted pick
#190
range #167–#213
Bust probability
77%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#159
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Dexter Williams
Predicted pick
#158
range #137–#179
Bust probability
57%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#87
on 1 board
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$1Mmodel
Damien Harris
Predicted pick
#98
range #75–#121
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#78
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Mike Weber· RB / WR / TE
  • Dexter Williams· RB / WR / TE
  • Damien Harris· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMike Weber32
  • AthleticismMike Weber29
  • AgeMike Weber88
  • ConsensusMike Weber23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Mike Weber50
  • Breakout ageMike Weber50
  • WorkloadMike Weber100
  • RAS × productionDexter Williams92

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Kenyan DrakeRB · Contributor→ shared byMike WeberDexter WilliamsDamien Harris
  • Mike DavisRB · Starter→ shared byMike WeberDexter WilliamsDamien Harris
  • Alvin KamaraRB · Bust→ shared byMike WeberDexter WilliamsDamien Harris
  • Karlos WilliamsRB · Bust→ shared byMike WeberDamien Harris
  • Wayne GallmanRB · Bust→ shared byMike WeberDamien Harris
Mike Weber
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
  • Karlos Williamsshared
    RB · #155
    Bust
  • Wayne Gallmanshared
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
Dexter Williams
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
  • C.J. Prosise
    RB · #90
    Starter
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
  • Paul Perkins
    RB · #149
    Starter
Damien Harris
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
  • Karlos Williamsshared
    RB · #155
    Bust
  • Wayne Gallmanshared
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Mike Weber
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #218 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman, Alvin Kamara. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #144; model has him #190 — a 46-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Dexter Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: C.J. Prosise, Mike Davis, Paul Perkins. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Damien Harris
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alvin Kamara, Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Mike WeberDexter WilliamsDamien Harris· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Mike Weber

Draftanomics projects Mike Weber (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #167-#213, wide band). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Mike Davis (Starter), Karlos Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Mike Davis (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). Drafted #218 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #144 and the model won't take him before #190 — a 46-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Dexter Williams

Draftanomics projects Dexter Williams (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #137-#179, wide band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Alvin Kamara (Bust), C.J. Prosise (Starter). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #144 — don't pay sticker price. A 57% bust probability backs the 14-spot markdown.

Damien Harris

Draftanomics projects Damien Harris (age 22.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #75-#121, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Alvin Kamara (Bust), Karlos Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Mike Davis (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alvin Kamara, Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #76 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.