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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
MW
Mike Weber
RB · Ohio St.
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 211 lb
DH
Damien Harris
RB · Alabama
22.2 yo · 5'10" · 216 lb
DW
Dexter Williams
RB · Notre Dame
22.3 yo · 5'11" · 212 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Mike Weber
Predicted pick
#190
range #167–#213
Bust probability
77%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#159
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Damien Harris
Predicted pick
#98
range #75–#121
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#78
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Dexter Williams
Predicted pick
#158
range #137–#179
Bust probability
57%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#87
on 1 board
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$1Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Mike Weber· RB / WR / TE
  • Damien Harris· RB / WR / TE
  • Dexter Williams· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMike Weber32
  • AthleticismMike Weber29
  • AgeMike Weber88
  • ConsensusMike Weber23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Mike Weber50
  • Breakout ageMike Weber50
  • WorkloadMike Weber100
  • RAS × productionDexter Williams92

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Kenyan DrakeRB · Contributor→ shared byMike WeberDamien HarrisDexter Williams
  • Mike DavisRB · Starter→ shared byMike WeberDamien HarrisDexter Williams
  • Alvin KamaraRB · Bust→ shared byMike WeberDamien HarrisDexter Williams
  • Karlos WilliamsRB · Bust→ shared byMike WeberDamien Harris
  • Wayne GallmanRB · Bust→ shared byMike WeberDamien Harris
Mike Weber
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
  • Karlos Williamsshared
    RB · #155
    Bust
  • Wayne Gallmanshared
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
Damien Harris
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
  • Karlos Williamsshared
    RB · #155
    Bust
  • Wayne Gallmanshared
    RB · #140
    Bust
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
Dexter Williams
  • Kenyan Drakeshared
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Alvin Kamarashared
    RB · #67
    Bust
  • C.J. Prosise
    RB · #90
    Starter
  • Mike Davisshared
    RB · #126
    Starter
  • Paul Perkins
    RB · #149
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Mike Weber
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #218 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman, Alvin Kamara. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #144; model has him #190 — a 46-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Damien Harris
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alvin Kamara, Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dexter Williams
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: C.J. Prosise, Mike Davis, Paul Perkins. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Mike WeberDamien HarrisDexter Williams· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Mike Weber

Draftanomics projects Mike Weber (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #167-#213, wide band). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Mike Davis (Starter), Karlos Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Mike Davis (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). Drafted #218 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #144 and the model won't take him before #190 — a 46-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Damien Harris

Draftanomics projects Damien Harris (age 22.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #75-#121, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Alvin Kamara (Bust), Karlos Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Mike Davis (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alvin Kamara, Karlos Williams, Wayne Gallman. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #76 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Dexter Williams

Draftanomics projects Dexter Williams (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #137-#179, wide band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Alvin Kamara (Bust), C.J. Prosise (Starter). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #144 — don't pay sticker price. A 57% bust probability backs the 14-spot markdown.