2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 46-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Brown (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #225 (range #177-#273, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: James Bradberry (Starter), Jack Tocho, Trey Caldwell (Bust). Ceiling is James Bradberry (Starter); floor is Jack Tocho. Drafted #223 by CIN in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #194 and the model won't take him before #225 — a 31-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Donnie Lewis Jr. (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #149-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Brown (Starter), Shaquill Griffin (Bust), Corn Elder. Ceiling is Anthony Brown (Starter); floor is Corn Elder. Drafted #221 by CLE in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 187 spots ahead of the room (board #179 vs consensus #366) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.