Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
JM
Jimmy Moreland
CB · James Madison
23.7 yo · — · —
LJ
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
CB · Kentucky
23.5 yo · 6'2" · 213 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Lonnie Johnson Jr. over Jimmy Moreland.

Decisive factor: 30-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jimmy Moreland
Projected range
Rounds 4-6
half went picks 143-225
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#158
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2.1M-$3.3Mmodel
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Projected range
Rounds 4-6
half went picks 115-207
Bust probability· rough estimate
20%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#112
on 23 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3.6M-$5.5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jimmy Moreland· CB / S
  • Lonnie Johnson Jr.· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJimmy Moreland79
  • AthleticismJimmy Moreland37
  • AgeLonnie Johnson Jr.46
  • ConsensusJimmy Moreland34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jimmy Moreland50
  • Breakout ageJimmy Moreland50
  • WorkloadLonnie Johnson Jr.100
  • RAS × productionJimmy Moreland26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Adrian ColbertCB · Bust→ shared byJimmy MorelandLonnie Johnson Jr.
  • Brian AllenCB · Bust→ shared byJimmy MorelandLonnie Johnson Jr.
Jimmy Moreland
  • Adrian Colbertshared
    CB · #229
    Bust
  • Brian Allenshared
    CB · #173
    Bust
  • Brendan Langley
    CB · #101
    Bust
  • Jeremy Clark
    CB · #197
    Bust
  • Derrick Jones
    CB · #204
    Bust
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
  • Brian Allenshared
    CB · #173
    Bust
  • Prince Charles Iworah
    CB · #249
    Bust
  • Adrian Colbertshared
    CB · #229
    Bust
  • Joshua Holsey
    CB · #235
    Bust
  • Fabian Moreau
    CB · #81
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jimmy Moreland
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Adrian Colbert, Brian Allen, Brendan Langley (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at consensus #158; model has him #196 — a 38-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brian Allen, Prince Charles Iworah, Adrian Colbert (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    23 boards have him at consensus #112; model has him #166 — a 54-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Jimmy MorelandLonnie Johnson Jr.· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jimmy Moreland

Draftanomics projects Jimmy Moreland (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #167-#225, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Adrian Colbert (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust), Brendan Langley (Bust). Ceiling is Brendan Langley (Bust); floor is Adrian Colbert (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Adrian Colbert, Brian Allen, Brendan Langley (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #158 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 38-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Lonnie Johnson Jr.

Draftanomics projects Lonnie Johnson Jr. (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #125-#207, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Brian Allen (Bust), Prince Charles Iworah (Bust), Adrian Colbert (Bust). Ceiling is Fabian Moreau (Bust); floor is Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Brian Allen, Prince Charles Iworah, Adrian Colbert (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #166 — a 54-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.