2 prospects · 2019 draft
Jimmy Moreland and Ken Webster project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jimmy Moreland (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #167-#225, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Adrian Colbert (Bust), Brian Allen (Bust), Brendan Langley (Bust). Ceiling is Brendan Langley (Bust); floor is Adrian Colbert (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Adrian Colbert, Brian Allen, Brendan Langley (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #158 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 38-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ken Webster (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #158-#232, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Eric Rowe (Franchise), D.J. White (Starter), Tevin Mitchel. Ceiling is Eric Rowe (Franchise); floor is Blake Countess (Contributor). The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #195 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.