3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Jelks (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #172 (range #125-#219, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin Dodd (Starter), Za'Darius Smith (Franchise), B.J. Dubose. Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. Drafted #241 by DAL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #113 and the model won't take him before #172 — a 59-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Shareef Miller (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #132 (range #88-#176, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 17% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin Dodd (Starter), DeForest Buckner (Starter), B.J. Dubose. Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #104 — don't pay sticker price. The 28-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Oshane Ximines (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #91 (range #31-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Dawuane Smoot (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust). Ceiling is Jonathan Woodard; floor is Pat O'Connor (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Dawuane Smoot, Takkarist McKinley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #91 sits within 5 spots of the room's #86 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.